Vishwakarma Business Review

Shailaja P. Yadav ¹

Affiliations
1 Indira Institute of Business Management, Navi Mumbai, IN

Abstract

This study presents a broad understanding of the Forex market, its participants and the methods used for analysis of the Forex markets. This research focuses on the currency Euro and the major economic indicators of the Euro zone. This research aids in understanding the movement of the Euro to the timely releases of Euro-zone economic indicators. Further this study also helps in determining the movement of the euro in a particular direction in the short term i.e. an hour and the possibility of trading the currency in the aforesaid time frame. Data was analyzed using inferential statistics. Thus findings of this study revealed that the German flash PMI is at the top spot as the most important economic indicator in business survey as it contributes 67 percent of changes in EUR/USD. French flash manufacturing PMI is second most important economic indicator in business survey as it contributes 53 percentof changes in EUR/USD. German IFO business climate constitutes 47 percent of the changes in EUR/USD. It is the third most important economic indicator in business survey due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Euro zone economic conditions.

Keywords

Forex, Euro Currency, Economic Indicators, Domestic Interest Rates, Inflation Rate.

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Shailaja P. Yadav ¹

Affiliations
1 Dr. V. N. Bedekar Institute of Management, Thane, IN

Abstract

Calendar anomalies in stock market returns and risk have been of considerable interest during the last three decades. This study tests the presence of the 'quarter of the year effect', 'month of the year effect', 'day of the week effect' on stock market volatility by using the NIFTY i.e. National Stock Exchange's index during the period of January 1996 to 31st March 2013. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Thus findings revealed that quarter of the year effect, month of the year effect, day of the week effect is present in both market volatility and market returns. The maximum and minimum returns are observed in Quarters 3 and 4 respectively whereas, the maximum volatility is observed in Quarters 1 and 2. The maximum and minimum returns are observed in December and January respectively whereas, the maximum volatility is observed in May and October. The maximum returns are observed on Wednesdays and Mondays whereas the maximum volatility is observed on Fridays and Wednesdays. (165 words).

Keywords

Quarter of the Year Effect, Month of the Year Effect, Day of the Week Effect, Volatility.

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